How will graphic paper demand be affected in North America and Western Europe?
The market for media tablets, which consists of tablet computers (including Apple’s iPad) and electronic readers (including Amazon’s Kindle) exploded in 2010. In the first year of availability over 15 million tablet computers reached consumers. In addition, the size of the North American electronic reader market almost doubled in size, surpassing 10 million units. By 2015, almost 200 million tablet computers are expected to be sold in North America and consumers will use them to consume content that was previously found in printed books, magazines and newspapers.
E-book sales have accelerated rapidly since 2008, but only a small fraction of consumers currently read e-books. With the North American e-reader market expected to multiply fourfold over the next five years, there is substantial room for e-book sales to continue rising dramatically. As the graph below shows, the growth so far has been mostly at the expense of printed books.
A survey by Morgan Stanley found that 42% of Americans who own a tablet said they plan to cancel their newspaper subscriptions; iBooks continue to be among the most popular free apps for the iPad; and Amazon revealed that digital books outsold print books in the U.S. last year.
What’s more, there is still considerable room for digital book sales to increase, according to RISI, as overall adoption rates are just beginning to pick up. From under $100 million in 2007, total digital book sales have increased to about $750 million in 2010, the study estimates, while total print sales have tumbled from about $8.7 billion to $7.7 billion over the same period.
How will media tablets affect publication paper markets over the next 15 years?
Print media companies have made great efforts to capitalize on the migration of consumer eyeballs towards digital, and magazine publishers are no exception. While media tablets may have an overall positive effect on readership, paper use in magazines is expected to fall at least 20% over the next 15 years. Newspapers have already faced severe competition from online news sources, and the adoption of media tablets, especially tablet computers, will make browsing news websites and digital editions even more convenient for consumers and advertisers.
RISI’s new study The Impact of Media Tablets on Publication Paper Markets provides low, mid and high impact scenarios over the next 5, 10, and 15 years of the effects of media tablets on graphic paper demand in books, magazines & newspapers.Focusing on North American and Western European markets, it breaksdown the loss of market share to media tablets by type of book, magazine and newspaper until 2025.
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